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ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.

...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.

While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.

..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026

$$

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