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ACUS01 KWNS 250527
SWODY1
SPC AC 250526

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...01z Update...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z.
Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and
a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the
Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern
LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance
suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the
surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly
100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where
surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer
shear, convection that develops within this environment would have
some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these
reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for
morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026

$$

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