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FOUS30 KWBC 250712
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

Latest guidance depicts a gradual uptick in convective coverage in
the first half of the forecast period from eastern Mississippi into
western/central Alabama - forced by an approaching mid-level wave
over Texas and dramatic increase in confluent low-level flow across
the Deep South. Though convection will be relatively quickly
moving, cell mergers amid 1.4-1.6 inch PW values will support
areas of heavy rain, with a few locales exceeding 2 inches in 3
hours. FFG thresholds are in that general range (2 in./3 hr.)
across Mississippi through central Alabama, potentially resulting
in areas of excessive runoff. Peak timing of this risk will be in
the 12-21Z timeframe.

Over time, models spread convection eastward into portions of
central/southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, with a greater
likelihood of surface-based convection. FFGs are substantially
higher across these areas with drier antecedent conditions and low
streamflows. Convective mode (derived by high-res guidance)=20
depicts a forward-propagating linear complex with rain rates=20
peaking at around 1-1.5 inch/3 hours on an isolated basis. Any=20
flash flood threat in this region should be relatively isolated in=20
nature with less than 5% coverage.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5qPJY4eteHvY-1b7hjB5wTn-Z5_gEnC0Js2OZoL618Im=
EuVc0TffBI5i3PsTuhl551UcK_d6tNZmhG0oYbCz8XhkPGA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5qPJY4eteHvY-1b7hjB5wTn-Z5_gEnC0Js2OZoL618Im=
EuVc0TffBI5i3PsTuhl551UcK_d6tNZmhG0oYbCzL4kBFvg$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5qPJY4eteHvY-1b7hjB5wTn-Z5_gEnC0Js2OZoL618Im=
EuVc0TffBI5i3PsTuhl551UcK_d6tNZmhG0oYbCzrOYISgo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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