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FOUS30 KWBC 251537
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1037 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

16z update:
Meteorological reasoning remains solid given 40-50kts of low level
flow and ample, though shallow moisture with PW values around=20
1.75" near the coast and 1.5" as far north as the triple point in=20
central AL. Hourly rates of 1.25-1.75" remain possible, though=20
duration is likely going to be the limiting factor. Convective=20
steering may support some southwest to northeast short-term=20
training especially if a pre-frontal convective development could=20
arise, though observational trends are not suggestive of that at=20
this time, with ongoing shallow cells still along the cold front or
even anafrontal (becoming freezing rain).=20

Still 12z Hi-Res CAMs and HREF probabilities still hint at
localized streak of 2-2.5" in 3-6hrs, placing it around the FFG=20
values especially across central AL into the southern Appalachians.
Winter mix from overnight period, likely will further complicate=20
hydrological situation with increased run-off as well especially in
the vicinity of the TN boarder with GA/NC. As such, only small=20
adjustments to the edges of the Marginal Risk were made.=20

Overall, the strongest cells (capable of .5 to .75"/15 minutes per
HRRR) are most likely to be remain along the Coastal Plains of S
AL, S GA and the FL Panhandle where FFG values are much higher and
warmer ground conditions are likely to be receptive of the rates.=20
Trends will be watched and there will remain a non- zero risk of=20
flooding but still remains below 5% coverage necessary to add the=20
Marginal Risk for those locations.=20

Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sL4ZafNWox0XI2Yyi-dJaXsqO7xM_ns7VjuJwZSclI4=
RP3WkVAuzd4a1RHNQVm-HlRjtLcBVPfpeOuxLeQ0vhayXHI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sL4ZafNWox0XI2Yyi-dJaXsqO7xM_ns7VjuJwZSclI4=
RP3WkVAuzd4a1RHNQVm-HlRjtLcBVPfpeOuxLeQ0YHIQQJw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sL4ZafNWox0XI2Yyi-dJaXsqO7xM_ns7VjuJwZSclI4=
RP3WkVAuzd4a1RHNQVm-HlRjtLcBVPfpeOuxLeQ0ZJ2hD8Y$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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