TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168915.weather@1:2320/105 2dde28c7
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
FOUS11 KWBC 251820
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 29 2026


...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
Days 1-2...

The expansive winter storm will wind down across the Central
Plains and Mid-South today, but significant impacts will persist
across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast tonight and
Monday.

This morning, the GOES-E water vapor imagery tells the take, with
an impressive plume of moisture stretching from Texas into southern
Canada, with a clear baroclinic leaf expanding over the TN/OH
Valleys. The upper low is spinning over TX and this will lift
northward into the Ohio Valley today, while secondary low pressure
development occurs off the Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. This
secondary low pressure will become dominant and strengthen as it
tracks south of New England, with the most significant winter
weather and impacts shifting into New England tonight and Monday.
The trailing upper trough will move across the Great Lakes Monday,
helping to drive an inverted trough back across New England even as
the primary low departs, and light although the heaviest snow
should end Monday night, light snow may persist in this area into
Tuesday morning.=20

This evolution will result in impressive additional snow amounts
(after 00Z this evening) from the higher terrain of WV/PA northeast
through Upstate NY and all of New England. The heaviest snowfall is
expected across Upstate NY and New England where WPC probabilities
indicate a high risk (>90%) for at least 8 inches, with 12-18"
possible (30-50% chance) for the Greens, Whites, and coastal SW=20
Maine/far northern MA thanks to a coastal front evolution. Snowfall
rates will be extreme at times, potentially reaching 2-3"/hr as=20
progged by the WPC prototype snowband tool due to strong WAA=20
overlapping fgen which may result in CSI/CI (and possible=20
thundersnow). The intense WAA in the 850-700mb will drive a warm=20
nose above 0C as far north as coastal CT/RI/Cape Cod, so some=20
transition to sleet is likely, but otherwise a very cold airmass=20
will allow SLRs to be above climo (but dropping during the event)=20
which will help that efficient snow growth. The DGZ is quite=20
elevated, so the best ascent will not cross-hatch into the snow=20
growth region in most areas, but nevertheless, robust moisture on=20
IVT exceeding the 90th percentile will wring out to this heavy=20
snow, and it is possible some 48-hr total snowfall will reach more=20
than 2 feet in parts of New England, with widespread 6-12" covering
most of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and rest of the Northeast=20
before this event winds down.

Although most of the accumulation will occur by 12Z Monday, the
aforementioned inverted trough linking back to the upper low may
allow for wrap-around snowfall to linger much of Monday and into
Monday night adding a few more inches of cold fluffy snow to the
area, especially New England and Upstate NY. WSSI-P indicates
continues high probabilities (>80%) for major impacts, and the I-95
corridor between NYC and Portland, ME will be treacherous through
Monday.

Farther south, freezing rain will continue for parts of the Mid-
Atlantic, especially northern NC, southeast VA, and potentially
along the I-95 corridor as far north as NYC. While additional
freezing rain amounts are expected to be modest as precip begins to
wind down (WPC probabilities suggest a 50-70% chance of at least
0.1" of ice), this will be on top of prior icing to enhance impacts
including treacherous travel and power outages. With extremely cold
temperatures likely after this storm persisting for many days, any
power outages will become a life-threatening situation for parts of
the Mid-Atlantic states.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, and multiple
embedded shortwaves will ride through this trough out of Canada,
each one acting to reinforce cold advection (CAA) across the Great
Lakes to support rounds of lake effect snow (LES). While GLERL
indicates that water temperatures are cooling, Lake Erie is
entirely ice covered, and with the very cold temperatures this week
continuing, additional ice cover is expected. However, there
should still be sufficient instability and moisture to support LES
each day through the forecast period. LES is not expected to be
extremely intense, although will be efficient downstream of Lake
Ontario towards the Tug Hill Plateau at times, and it is this area
that is expected to receive the heaviest LES. WPC probabilities for
all 3 days indicate a high chance (>70%) for at least 8 inches east
of Lake Ontario, with lower probabilities for 8+ inches (10-30%
chance) southeast of Lake Michigan and across the eastern U.P. on
the south shore of Lake Superior.

Weiss



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5X0xN7MdHtpiv0Oq5XxTtzmHSf-mjyyl5Z8e4q_9Z6UZb=
c44QpuSi4xTywscDvjJby3zed3keoBg7ZLpxNDxroebvd4$=20

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5X0xN7MdHtpiv0Oq5XxTtzmHSf-mjyyl5Z8e4q_9Z6UZb=
c44QpuSi4xTywscDvjJby3zed3keoBg7ZLpxNDxHkG_Cm8$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14
SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 70
SEEN-BY: 220/90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110
SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512
SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200
SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/267 280 712/114 620 848 770/1 100 340 350
SEEN-BY: 772/210 220 230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 712/848 229/426