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QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 25 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

16z update:
Meteorological reasoning remains solid given 40-50kts of low level
flow and ample, though shallow moisture with PW values around
1.75" near the coast and 1.5" as far north as the triple point in
central AL. Hourly rates of 1.25-1.75" remain possible, though
duration is likely going to be the limiting factor. Convective
steering may support some southwest to northeast short-term
training especially if a pre-frontal convective development could
arise, though observational trends are not suggestive of that at
this time, with ongoing shallow cells still along the cold front or
even anafrontal (becoming freezing rain).

Still 12z Hi-Res CAMs and HREF probabilities still hint at
localized streak of 2-2.5" in 3-6hrs, placing it around the FFG
values especially across central AL into the southern Appalachians.
Winter mix from overnight period, likely will further complicate
hydrological situation with increased run-off as well especially in
the vicinity of the TN boarder with GA/NC. As such, only small
adjustments to the edges of the Marginal Risk were made.

Overall, the strongest cells (capable of .5 to .75"/15 minutes per
HRRR) are most likely to be remain along the Coastal Plains of S
AL, S GA and the FL Panhandle where FFG values are much higher and
warmer ground conditions are likely to be receptive of the rates.
Trends will be watched and there will remain a non- zero risk of
flooding but still remains below 5% coverage necessary to add the
Marginal Risk for those locations.

Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vXUiTgPznJ_ggRXgjGTFycoflMLeOOlAeDxisOVkYpa=
hllSxghUiN6aFHTN0NZKaKfVjPJ01uRUy98yMPHiSg2xG8E$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vXUiTgPznJ_ggRXgjGTFycoflMLeOOlAeDxisOVkYpa=
hllSxghUiN6aFHTN0NZKaKfVjPJ01uRUy98yMPHiLV1VL90$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vXUiTgPznJ_ggRXgjGTFycoflMLeOOlAeDxisOVkYpa=
hllSxghUiN6aFHTN0NZKaKfVjPJ01uRUy98yMPHifG_xsAo$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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