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FOUS11 KWBC 260707
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026


...New England...
Day 1...

The major winter storm that swept over the Nation the last few
days will continue to gradually exit the Northeast today, with
lingering additional snowfall across parts of New England. By the
start of the forecast period (12z Mon), the primary surface low
will be sliding east into the open Atlantic and only provide for
some favorable ocean-enhanced snow from the south coast of ME to
eastern MA. Otherwise, mostly light to moderate snow will be
associated with a weakening 850mb low tracking across northern New
England. Additional snowfall amounts through tonight are expected
to range from 3-5", with the highest probabilities (50-80%) for
greater than 4" extending from the northern coast of MA to eastern
ME. Storm total snowfall amounts from Sunday through the D1 period
are expected to exceed 20" across parts of New England.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across the east, and multiple
embedded shortwaves will ride through this trough out of Canada,
each one acting to reinforce cold advection (CAA) across the Great
Lakes to support rounds of lake effect snow (LES). While GLERL
indicates that water temperatures are cooling, Lake Erie is
entirely ice covered, and with the very cold temperatures this week
continuing, additional ice cover is expected. However, there
should still be sufficient instability and moisture to support LES
each day through the forecast period. LES is not expected to be
extremely intense, although will be efficient downstream of Lake
Ontario towards the Tug Hill Plateau at times, and it is this area
that is expected to receive the heaviest LES. WPC probabilities for
all 3 days indicate a high chance (>80%) for at least 12 inches
east of Lake Ontario, with lower probabilities for 8+ inches
(30-60% chance) east of Lake Michigan and across the eastern U.P.
on the south shore of Lake Superior.


Snell



$$

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