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FOUS30 KWBC 261941
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Mon Jan 26 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Orrison


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON STATE...

2030Z Update...

The 12Z model guidance supports a relatively modest atmospheric
river impacting western WA by later Wednesday and going through
early Thursday. IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s are progged to
impact especially western WA as strengthening southwest low to
mid-level flow takes place. Heavy rainfall is most likely over the
orographically favored southwest-facing slopes of the Olympic
Peninsula, and a few inches of rain is supported by a multi-model
consensus of guidance. Many of the area streams and creeks are
currently at or below normal for streamflows, so any runoff=20
concerns at least for this period should be highly isolated. The=20
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall will be maintained for the time
being.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

Models are generally consistent in a substantial increase in
southwesterly low-level flow across western Washington State during
the D3/Wed forecast period as a broad upper trough becomes
established over the northeastern Pacific. 35-50kt 850mb flow will
become oriented favorably against local terrain for appreciable
orographic ascent for occasional moderate to heavy rainfall. Areas
of 2-5 inch rainfall totals are expected mainly across the Olympic
Peninsula (highest in favorable terrain areas). These rainfall
totals should be sufficient for at least isolated/minor flooding in
typically favored areas.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4mjYuv7kprFz3qaNnfyGgGAUcbZ-M_NFAsmJckG-TefR=
XqL9CP2p1ZkPR_p0P85SgecocRcAJ5JQSSCZmxdS5ZlfLR8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4mjYuv7kprFz3qaNnfyGgGAUcbZ-M_NFAsmJckG-TefR=
XqL9CP2p1ZkPR_p0P85SgecocRcAJ5JQSSCZmxdSmXP33JQ$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4mjYuv7kprFz3qaNnfyGgGAUcbZ-M_NFAsmJckG-TefR=
XqL9CP2p1ZkPR_p0P85SgecocRcAJ5JQSSCZmxdSuNX0Waw$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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