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FOUS30 KWBC 270048
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Day 1
Valid 01Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Orrison


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 29 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON STATE...

2030Z Update...

The 12Z model guidance supports a relatively modest atmospheric
river impacting western WA by later Wednesday and going through
early Thursday. IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s are progged to
impact especially western WA as strengthening southwest low to
mid-level flow takes place. Heavy rainfall is most likely over the
orographically favored southwest-facing slopes of the Olympic
Peninsula, and a few inches of rain is supported by a multi-model
consensus of guidance. Many of the area streams and creeks are
currently at or below normal for streamflows, so any runoff
concerns at least for this period should be highly isolated. The
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall will be maintained for the time
being.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

Models are generally consistent in a substantial increase in
southwesterly low-level flow across western Washington State during
the D3/Wed forecast period as a broad upper trough becomes
established over the northeastern Pacific. 35-50kt 850mb flow will
become oriented favorably against local terrain for appreciable
orographic ascent for occasional moderate to heavy rainfall. Areas
of 2-5 inch rainfall totals are expected mainly across the Olympic
Peninsula (highest in favorable terrain areas). These rainfall
totals should be sufficient for at least isolated/minor flooding in
typically favored areas.

Cook


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ESfkPwpyVSx1Ayh6MWDM-bJV207VdMOJelFp1MwqD0J=
IJbavtJnbICE9a40z6t6JUImxj9xEiA1dqvYmIDxeMMwpHE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ESfkPwpyVSx1Ayh6MWDM-bJV207VdMOJelFp1MwqD0J=
IJbavtJnbICE9a40z6t6JUImxj9xEiA1dqvYmIDxWh3xdis$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_ESfkPwpyVSx1Ayh6MWDM-bJV207VdMOJelFp1MwqD0J=
IJbavtJnbICE9a40z6t6JUImxj9xEiA1dqvYmIDxMuT7KOw$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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