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FOUS11 KWBC 270733
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 27 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 30 2026


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...

Broad cyclonic flow and trough passages persist across the Great
Lakes as low pressure over Hudson Bay shifts south over Ontario
through Thursday. These will produce rounds of lake effect snow=20
(LES) beginning today behind a notable upper trough passage. 850mb
temperatures will remain quite cold during this period, with
temperatures around -18 to -24C, and below the 10th climatological
percentile. According to GLERL, Lake Erie is essentially ice=20
covered, so available moisture will be limited there while Lakes=20
Superior and Ontario remain largely open. Westerly flow will
continue across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday night, with
northerly flow more likely on Day 3 across the Upper Great Lakes,
This allows Days 1-3 PWPF for >8" over 50% in the Tug Hill and for
the eastern U.P. of Michigan. The heaviest snowfall is no doubt
most likely downwind of Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill, where 50-60%
probabilities for >18" reach the shoreline of Oswego county.


...Cascades...
Days 2/3...

The next trough axis to near the Pacific Northwest shunts the=20
powerful western ridge eastward Tuesday night, with precip over=20
the WA Cascades then through Thursday. Snow levels rise from 4000=20
to 5000ft over the WA Cascades Wednesday through Thursday. PWPF for
>6" is 40-70% above the snow level (above pass level) by Thursday.


The probability for significant icing is less than 10 percent.



Snell





...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key
Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8NunqgJMY9ONsq94cDZxgfNTy_qFZpb-PYrxM2rTB5EIS=
h2M4WxUege40SO-B-z28uH25Ynjwag2vrjv-7YR7oHbKF4$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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