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ACUS02 KWNS 281610
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent for Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the
Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies
and western Prairies, through this period.  As this occurs, a series
of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale
upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support
another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic
wave.  However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating
thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of
thunderstorm development.

Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the
building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and
Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent
short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across
the international border into the Upper Midwest.  Beneath a
confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears
that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the
international border through the northern Great Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley.  In advance of the perturbation emerging from
the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across
the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another
weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the
northwestern Gulf Basin.  However, models indicate that western Gulf
boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite
limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an
appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 01/28/2026

$$

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