PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013

...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER...

NOVEMBER 11TH THROUGH 15TH IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
IN ARKANSAS...AND IT HAS BEEN SO PROCLAIMED BY GOVERNOR MIKE
BEBEE. SPONSORS OF THE AWARENESS WEEK ARE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...THE ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...ENTERGY ARKANSAS...THE ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES
OF ARKANSAS...THE ARKANSAS NATIONAL GUARD...THE ARKANSAS
STATE POLICE...AND THE AMERICAN RED CROSS.

PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER SEASON.

TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.

LAST WINTER IN ARKANSAS...TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
PARTS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 4.5
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORY THIS PAST WINTER WAS THE CHRISTMAS
WINTER STORM THAT DUMPED HEAVY WET SNOW ON A SWATH FROM
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW
REPORTED WERE 18 INCHES ON PETIT JEAN MOUNTAIN IN CONWAY
COUNTY...17.5 INCHES AT PERRY IN PERRY COUNTY...AND 15 INCHES
AT JESSIEVILLE IN GARLAND COUNTY AND UNION VALLEY IN PERRY
COUNTY.

SINCE THE WINTER OF 1987-88...ONLY THE WINTERS OF 2000-01...
2002-03...2009-10...AND 2010-11 HAVE AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES IN LITTLE ROCK.

THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER /THE MONTHS
OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...AND FEBRUARY/ IS SOMEHWAT LESS THAN IT IS
IN SOME YEARS. ENSO /EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION/ NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WINTER...WHICH MEANS THAT
NEITHER EL NINO /A WARMING OF OCEAN WATERS IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC/ NOR LA NINA /A COOLING OF THE OCEAN WATERS IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC/ WILL BE OCCURRING.

IN YEARS PAST WHEN THE CURRENT GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WAS
OCCURRING...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION IN ARKANSAS GENERALLY
ENDED UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  IN ADDITION...WINTERS
OFTEN STARTED OFF COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL AND THEN ENDED UP
WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL.  THESE FACTORS WOULD IMPLY THAT
SNOW AND ICE WOULD BE MOST COMMON DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WINTER AND CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF WINTER.

ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COMES INTO PLAY...FROM TIME TO TIME...IN THE
WEATHER THAT OCCURS DURING THE WINTER IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION.
THIS IS A PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE ARCTIC REGION. WHEN THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION IS NEGATIVE...COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE POLAR
REGIONS. IF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS POSITIVE...A PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PREVAILS.

THE DIFFICULTY IN MAKING LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS IS THAT WHAT
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS GOING TO DO CAN GENERALLY BE FORESEEN
ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS IN ADVANCE. THUS...EVEN IF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION WERE GOING TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR THIS COMING
WINTER...THAT COULD NOT BE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR ARKANSAS.

CITY        NORMAL HIGH      NORMAL LOW     NORMAL PRECIPITATION
BENTONVILLE         48.0            25.3                8.67
EUREKA SPRINGS      47.9            28.1                8.96
FAYETTEVILLE        47.7            26.1`               8.85
HARRISON            48.3            28.3                8.40
MOUNTAIN HOME       47.9            27.5               10.30
JONESBORO           48.2            28.1               12.03
FORT SMITH          52.3            31.1                8.86
BATESVILLE          51.0            26.9               11.48
NEWPORT             47.8            31.0               12.44
RUSSELLVILLE        52.9            30.6               11.59
SEARCY              51.1            29.2               12.28
CONWAY              51.5            29.5               12.18
MENA                51.5            29.6               12.84
HOT SPRINGS         52.4            33.3               13.30
LITTLE ROCK         52.6            33.1               12.18
NORTH LITTLE ROCK   51.7            34.7               12.09
PINE BLUFF          53.4            33.9               14.10
CAMDEN              56.5            32.2               14.12
MAGNOLIA            56.2            33.3               14.07
MONTICELLO          55.4            35.6               15.30
WARREN              54.8            33.4               15.84
TEXARKANA           56.0            35.8               12.44
EL DORADO           56.6            34.8               14.27

AN IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING
WINTER...NO MATTER WHAT THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES...
VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS DURING THE
WINTER. THERE ARE USUALLY SOME PERIODS OF NOTICEABLY COLD WEATHER
INTERSPERSED WITH MILDER PERIODS.

SEASONAL OUTLOOKS ARE NOT SPECIFIC ENOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY BIG OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TORNADOES DURING THE
WINTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED HAS
BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WINTER...
ESPECIALLY IN FEBRUARY.

LIKEWISE...SEASONAL OUTLOOKS CANNOT BE SPECIFIC REGARDING LARGE ICE
OR SNOWSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
THE WINTER OFTEN DOES PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

A MAP SHOWING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM CAN
BE FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DEC2012.HTM  /MUST BE IN
LOWER CASE LETTERS/

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS CAN BE
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=WINLOOK1314.HTM  /MUST BE
IN LOWER CASE LETTERS/

$$

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